3/8/2023 0 Comments Timeslice environment![]() Mid-term and long-term climate change scenarios were generated for 2035 to 20 to 2095 respectively. The baseline period for observed days was from 1975 to 2005. The climate variables used in this research were daily precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. The climate change scenarios for this study were produced by selecting a number of global climate models and emission scenarios, downscaling that data, and generating a broad set of futures by means of a stochastic weather generator. ![]() Thirdly, changing climatic conditions were applied to the model. Secondly, management practices were systematically applied to the baseline to study changes in maize and wood yields and the net present value of the system. Firstly, the model was calibrated to the “baseline” field research in Tabora. This model was calibrated to data from field research on rotational woodlots conducted in Tabora, Tanzania from 1996 to 2002 by the World Agroforestry Centre.įour sets of experimental simulations were conducted with the WaNuLCAS model to determine the response of the agroforestry system to changes. Water, Nutrient, and Light Capture in Agroforestry Systems (WaNuLCAS) is a system dynamics model developed by the World Agroforestry Centre that was selected to investigate long-term bio-physical interactions of maize and Acacia trees. System dynamics modelling is a cost-effective tool to simulate the long-term behaviour of agroforestry systems under future climate conditions. It is prudent to evaluate different modes of agricultural adaptations, such as agroforestry, that these farmers can easily adopt to improve their resiliency to the effects of climate change. Smallholder farmers in western Tanzania are potentially vulnerable to climate change impact as crops rely on precipitation as the only source of water. Climate change is anticipated to have significant effects on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa as the magnitude of weather events increase in severity.
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